"A wise man proportions his belief to the evidence." — David Hume
Daily
Know what moved, why it moved, and what it means for your book before the open.
Research
Map every position to a catalyst, a risk, and a clear invalidation before you size in.
Thesis
Build a documented position book your investment committee can read in five minutes.
Pre-Market Brief
Fast summary before the open.
Check Thesis
Test against your rules & playbook.
Read the Tape
Sector rotation and momentum read.
Review Session
What changed? What did I miss?
Nvidia sits at the center of the AI infrastructure buildout. Every major hyperscaler — Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta — has publicly committed to multi-year GPU procurement cycles. Blackwell demand is outstripping supply well into 2025.
The market is pricing NVDA as a cyclical. It is a platform. The CUDA moat means switching costs are extraordinarily high — retraining workloads on AMD or custom silicon takes 12–18 months minimum.
Invalidation: hyperscaler capex cuts >15% or a credible CUDA alternative reaches production scale.
Framework
Soros
Macro imbalance + breaking point
Burry
Structural mispricing + contrarian data
Buffett
Moat + intrinsic value + margin of safety
Druckenmiller
Macro backdrop + best expression
Ackman
Activist deck + price target + timeline
Lynch
Plain-language 2-min pitch
Breaking the Bank of England
Risk Management Process
Setup Qualification
Post-Trade Review
Macro dislocation identified
UK fundamentals vs. ERM peg
Bundesbank raising rates
ERM defense → recession
Map the asymmetry
Build the position
Watch for signals
Peg breaks
Peg holds
Named for David Hume — the philosopher who believed knowledge comes from evidence, not assumption.
Daily
Know what moved, why it moved, and what it means for your book before the open.
Research
Map every position to a catalyst, a risk, and a clear invalidation before you size in.
Thesis
Build a documented position book your investment committee can read in five minutes.
Pre-Market Brief
Fast summary before the open.
Check Thesis
Test against your rules & playbook.
Read the Tape
Sector rotation and momentum read.
Review Session
What changed? What did I miss?
Nvidia sits at the center of the AI infrastructure buildout. Every major hyperscaler — Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta — has publicly committed to multi-year GPU procurement cycles. Blackwell demand is outstripping supply well into 2025.
The market is pricing NVDA as a cyclical. It is a platform. The CUDA moat means switching costs are extraordinarily high — retraining workloads on AMD or custom silicon takes 12–18 months minimum.
Invalidation: hyperscaler capex cuts >15% or a credible CUDA alternative reaches production scale.
Framework
Soros
Macro imbalance + breaking point
Burry
Structural mispricing + contrarian data
Buffett
Moat + intrinsic value + margin of safety
Druckenmiller
Macro backdrop + best expression
Ackman
Activist deck + price target + timeline
Lynch
Plain-language 2-min pitch
Breaking the Bank of England
Risk Management Process
Setup Qualification
Post-Trade Review
Macro dislocation identified
UK fundamentals vs. ERM peg
Bundesbank raising rates
ERM defense → recession
Map the asymmetry
Build the position
Watch for signals
Peg breaks
Peg holds